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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

How big is the LP's natural constituency?

Norm wrote that "the Libertarian Party's positions appeal to only 2-4% of the voting population".  Edward wrote that "LP concepts appeal to about 16% of the population".  They're both close to right.

Of the 27 planks of the new moderate LP platform (http://lp.org/platform), 2% is probably a high estimate of the fraction of people who would agree with even half of them, let alone all of them.  However, 13% to 20% of the people do indeed say that in general they want more economic freedom and more personal freedom. For a compilation of survey data about libertarianism, see http://libertarianmajority.net/libertarian-polling.  Here are the highlights:
  • 0.24% of American voters register Libertarian.
  • 0.4% of Americans vote Libertarian for President.
  • 2% of Americans self-identify unprompted as "libertarian".
  • 9% of Americans were rated libertarian by a 2004 Pew survey asking three questions on economic issues—government health insurance, government regulation, and private retirement accounts for Social Security—and three social issues—gay marriage, banning books in school libraries, and government promotion of morality.
  • 13% of Americans — and 15% of actual voters — agree that 1) the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses, 2) the government should not favor any particular set of values, and 3) the federal government today has too much power.
  • 16% of Americans polled using the World's Smallest Political Quiz fall into the libertarian quadrant.
  • 21% of Americans agree that 1) the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses, and 2) the government should not favor any particular set of values.
  • 44% of Americans agree when asked if they consider themselves "fiscally conservative and socially liberal, also known as libertarian".
  • 59% of Americans agree when asked if they consider themselves "fiscally conservative and socially liberal."